The “en primeur” or future sales of the 2008 Bordeaux vintage are pretty much in full swing — assuming that the announcement of prices by the major chateaux (rather than actual transactions) is your measure of commercial activity.

In previous years the region would have been besieged by experts, commentators and traders tasting the largely unfinished wines and pronouncing on their quality. Release prices would have been eagerly anticipated: those with the right to buy directly from the producers or their brokers would have found a ready market to on-sell their booty. These are certainly not usual times however, and the indications — ahead of the launch of the campaign — were that some of the customary middlemen had no intention of shopping.

There was a risk attached to this decision: failure to exercise your rights as an en primeur purchaser could mean delisting as a privileged direct customer. Accordingly, this would not have been a course of action lightly undertaken. Still, several of the bigger name players are on record as saying that they would only be going to Bordeaux to taste the wine, not to buy it.

Ahead of the announcement of prices for the first “tranche” there seemed to be general consensus that the chateaux owners — who usually put avarice well ahead of judgment — would actually exercise some restraint in determining launch cost.

En primeur deals only really make sense if you fear you won’t otherwise be able to secure a particular wine. Most research shows that — except for the bull market which began with the 2000 vintage — prices don’t rise fast enough to justify a futures strategy.

The 2005 vintage was in many respects the great watershed. Quality was universally acknowledged as “extraordinary,” there was ample money about and even people who knew nothing about wine were willing to join in the speculation. Prices — which were high to begin with — soon doubled. Even today, at 40% off their peak, they offer a handsome profit to anyone who bought on the first tranche.

The success of the 2005s boosted the prices of the less exceptional 2006s and 2007s. Two thousand and eight is probably better than the overpriced 2007s but if the pipeline is full and the speculators have more important concerns on their minds, it’s unlikely there will be much of an appetite for them. The smart money reckoned on really low prices to help move the sluggish 2007s and to keep the en primeur system alive. No other fine wine market enjoys a better cash-flow mechanism than the future trades of Bordeaux.

The first tranches of First Growths such as Lafite and Mouton are coming to market at R1600 to R1800 per bottle — the purchase paid now, delivery a couple of years hence and drinkability (for those who care about this) about 2025. This may be a lot cheaper than the 2005s but it’s still a long way ahead of the opening prices of better vintages in an era before the market overheated. It’s also vastly more expensive than the present price of the best 2005 Second Growths and at least three times the Seconds’ 2008 first tranche.

If these prices hold — and the chateaux move the same volumes of the 2008s as they did of the 2005s — Bordeaux will again have escaped the crisis the pundits have been predicting for years. But that will only be because enough punters will have been able to defer the recalibration of their value system the financial tsunami was supposed to induce.

From Business Day 8 April 2009